Having sort of liveblogged the Presidential race, I think I will now turn to California Prop 8.
Things aren't looking too good early in the returns; it's 51% yes, 46% no with 18% of precincts reporting. CNN has a nice map
and county-by-county results
Looking at the latter, I see that the counties that are pretty much all reported -- right now that's Amador, Lassen, Modoc, Sierra, Stanislaus, Trinity and Tuolumne -- are rather tiny. They're also staunchly voting yes, to the tune of 60-70%, which I suspect is where the early rush is coming from. None of them have cracked 100,000 voters yet, and the only one with a remote chance of doing so is Stanislaus. Fresno County will break 100,000 and is also solidly in the Yes camp, but they're 42% reported.
San Francisco has only just started to roll in, and this is a passionate issue in our city of three-quarters of a million people. 75% say "hell no!" already, with Marin right behind at 73% no. Alameda is 62% no at only 10% of precincts reported. San Mateo and Santa Clara are weaker but I'm going to call them for the No camp, and their large populations -- also nowhere near fully reported -- are going to make a big difference. Smaller allies are our winemaking friends in Sonoma and the ultra-liberals of Santa Cruz, the latter of whom haven't reported much either but are likely to turn out in droves.
No, the real threat to marriage equality in California is coming from Los Angeles, Orange County, and of all places San Diego. WTF, San Diego? When I visited you, I went to a pretty damn good goth night at a lesbian bar.
Still, the margins in LA and SD are much narrower than they are in the north. This is a good sign.
As I've typed this, the percentages have held steady at 54-46 in favour. We'll see how that goes as the evening rolls on.10:22 pm:
27% of precincts reporting and the numbers have slipped to 53-37 in favour. San Francisco at 63% reported, with a whopping 78-22 against. Orange County has me worried; some 350,000 ballots in and only 11% of precincts reported so far. Santa Clara's looking good, still a weak 55% no but around 310,000 ballots so far, 29% reported. The margin in Los Angeles is only 6 points at 10% reported. Alameda and Contra Costa may end up being our secret weapon; they're at 10% and 12% reported respectively, with very high populations, and 62% and 54% no respectively.
Maybe some charts will make this easier.11:04 pm:
32% of precincts reporting, and we're at 52.6% for, 47.4% against. San Francisco is 98% reported, with 174,225 No votes. I'm adding San Bernardino County to the axis of evil, with 104,356 yeses (69%) and only 19% reported. Boo, hiss.
Wrote code to display graphs, discovered too late that pygooglecharts doesn't support labels for bar graphs. WTF. About to rewrite it using PyCha, sorry 'bout that.12:03 am:
Fuck PyCha, here's the state of the high-population counties using matplotlib. Red means people who voted No, green means people who voted Yes.
San Francisco's over and done with. Santa Cruz has just barely gotten started reporting. The race has narrowed in San Diego. Contra Costa is still early in reporting, at about 20%. San Diego, Los Angeles, Alameda and Orange County are all around a third of the way done.
I'll see if I can tweak the chart program I wrote so that bars get darker in proportion to how complete reporting is. No promises though.12:35 am:
New chart. Bars get darker in proportion to how complete the reporting is.
This isn't looking good, folks. The margin is dropping -- 52.3% for, 47.7% against -- but counting in large, friendly counties is mostly complete. Santa Clara is really our only big friendly that's going to keep on contributing. Sonoma (not on the chart, I'll add it next round) is also fairly large and at a respectable 66% against, but it's 69% in and I don't think it'll have quite enough oomph to carry us through. Stick a fork in San Francisco, Alameda, San Mateo and Marin. Santa Cruz had lower turnout than I expected, and Los Angeles and San Diego are still rolling in.
I mean, we could get lucky -- there may be key districts in LA that haven't come in yet -- but I think LA and San Diego killed this one for us.12:58 am:
Holding steady at 52.3% for, 47.7% against, 63% of precincts reported.
With basically only Santa Clara and Contra Costa left to fight off the LA/OC/SD juggernaut, I think we have to call this one finished. Dammit. Southern California just has too many people.1:33 am:
72% reporting. 52.2% for, 47.8% against.
Marin, Orange County, San Francisco, San Joaquin, San Mateo and Santa Cruz are now 100% reported. Sacramento and Sonoma are near-finished as makes no odds.
WTF is up with the low voter turnout in San Francisco? In 1996 we had 421,094 registered voters and I'm sure the number was higher this year. How did we only have 231,357 votes cast on Prop 8?2:00 am:
80% reporting, 52-48 exactly.
Contra Costa, Sacramento and Sonoma Counties are 100% reported now. Wonder what's taking so long in Santa Clara.2:13 am:
82% reporting, 51.8%-48.2%.
Los Angeles just narrowed to a 2% gap, with 10% of precincts left to go. San Bernardino, San Diego and Santa Clara are still taking forever. Can we hope for some kind of last-minute hail-Mary upset? I need a Red Bull.2:48 am:
84% reporting, still 51.8%-48.2%.
They're just about finished in Los Angeles, but San Diego and Santa Clara are just barely inching along, and San Bernardino hasn't moved in forever.feyandstrange
suggests that San Francisco absentee and mail-in ballots may not have been counted yet.
Not sure whether that's the case or not; can anyone shed some light on that? They almost definitely have not been counted yet; see her quote from SFGov.org.3:49 am:
87% reporting, still 51.8%-48.2%.
LA County finishes its count at almost a dead even tie. 1,317,125 votes for, 1,296,319 against. That's 50.4% to 49.6%. Santa Clara County is still inching toward a close, but with reports of a predicted 80 to 85% voter turnout and polling places that still had long lines at 8 pm
!), no wonder it's taking so long. I can't stay awake clear through noon, folks, I have to sleep sometime.
No forward motion at all in San Bernardino. Srsly, WTF?
Do early voters also count as absentee voters? ephermata
suggests they probably do, since they don't vote at their usual polling place. For that matter, my Occasional Housemate probably counts as an absentee voter, since she went to City Hall rather than taking the bus all the way out to the inner Sunset (where she's registered).4:02 am:
No chart this time, just news: Over 250,000 early or absentee ballots cast in Alameda County, and 100,000 early ballots cast in San Francisco.
Sweet jumping fuck, this proposition is
going to be decided by the absentee voters.4:31 am:
91% reporting, still 51.8% for, 48.2% against.
San Diego and Santa Clara are both past the 3/4 mark. We're looking at a gap of 350,674 votes statewide. So now it's a question of what early voter turnout was like across the state, and whether early voters were likely to be for or against Prop 8.
Caffeine isn't helping anymore, and I'm supposed to be at work in seven hours. I'm wrapping this post here, folks. I'll do a summary in a new entry, and then I'm going to bed.
This one definitely isn't over till the final
final count goes through.